Regional Barometer. Analyses & Prognoses

Application of MS-GARCH Class Models in the Analysis of EUR/PLN Exchange Rate Risk in the Context of Poland’s Monetary Integration and the ERM II Mechanism

Patryk Kołbyko — 2025-12-03

The aim of this article is to identify a hypothetical central EUR/PLN exchange rate within the ERM II framework and to assess the risk of exceeding the permissible fluctuation band for the 2025–2028 horizon. The study uses daily exchange rate data from 2020–2024 and applies nonlinear models of the MS-GARCH (Markov-Switching GARCH) class in both homogeneous and heterogeneous variants, estimated using the quasi-maximum likelihood method. The research procedure included the selection of optimal P and Q parameters according to the AIC information criterion, the identification of periods characterized by heightened volatility regimes, and the forecasting of exchange rate volatility using the MS-GARCH model combined with Monte Carlo simulations for logarithmic returns. The results indicate an optimal ERM II central rate of PLN 4.53, with the heterogeneous MS-GARCH model revealing 21 days of elevated risk of exceeding the upper threshold in November and December 2027. The study contributes an empirical, atheoretical approach to determining the ERM II central rate, filling a gap in the analysis of emerging economies outside the euro area.

Forms of Public Support for Energy Clusters. The Example of the Dolnośląskie Voivodship (Poland)

Beata Namyślak — 2025-12-03

The aim of the research was to determine the forms of support provided to energy clusters in Poland. The author sought to answer the following questions: what activities do energy clusters receive support for; whether the support obtained come from foreign (EU) or domestic funds; what the opinion of cluster facilitators is about access to public support; and how do energy clusters fit within the current cluster policy in Poland? The study area was the Dolnośląskie Voivodship — one of 16 administrative regions (NUTS 2) of Poland. The author selected this region because it has the largest number of energy clusters in Poland. The following methods were used to achieve the goal of the research goal: (1) a review of literature and industry reports, (2) a CAWI survey of clusters, and (3) interviews with cluster facilitators. Public support received by the surveyed clusters concerned either the commencement or the continuation of cluster activity. In the initial phase of the clusters’ activity, the support received concerned documentation work, the drafting of plans for the expansion of the power grid and the purchase of an energy monitoring and management system. At later stages of cluster development, the implemented projects mainly concerned the construction of ground-based PV farms and the construction of photovoltaic installations on the roofs of public utility buildings. Less frequently implemented projects included the thermal modernization of public buildings, hybrid investments (PV and wind turbines) and energy storage facilities. Additionally, educational projects were implemented. The public support received came mainly from EU funds (Operational Programs and the Interreg program). In turn, support from national funds came from the Voivodship Fund for Environmental Protection and Water Management, from local government funds or from the Polish Deal — i.e., the government’s program of strategic investments.

Lintner’s Dividend Partial Adjustment Model on Aggregate Data. The Case of the Warsaw Stock Exchange

Mieczysław Kowerski — 2025-12-03

The partial adjustment model developed by Lintner, which assumes that the dividend paid for year t is dependent on net profit in year t and on the dividend paid in year t − 1, and used to assess the dividend policy of individual companies as well as entire markets and their sectors, is most often estimated on the basis of data from selected companies. Additionally, estimations of the model typically only consider observations in which a dividend payment was recorded. Because this selection is not random, it limits the possibility of correctly assessing the dividend policy implemented in the analyzed markets. Therefore, the article hypothesizes that the dividend policy of a given market will be better described by the Lintner model estimated on the aggregate sums of payments and profits of all companies paying dividends than by one estimated on the panel data of selected companies. The hypothesis was verified using models estimated with aggregate data from the Warsaw Stock Exchange for the years 1992–2024. The source of information on dividends and profits was resolutions of the Ordinary (or, much less often, Extraordinary) General Meetings of Shareholders, adopted by all companies that paid at least one dividend during while listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange.