Regional Barometer. Analyses & Prognoses

Regional Heterogeneity of Government Expenditure Multipliers in Poland

Piotr Krajewski, Katarzyna Piłat — Wed, 26 Jun 2024 00:00:00 +0200

The study analyzes the regional heterogeneity of the impact of government expenditure on Polish voivodships. The aim of the paper is to estimate regional fiscal multipliers in Poland. The empirical research is based on the structural vector autoregression model with the identification scheme proposed by Blanchard and Perotti. The estimations were carried out on the basis of quarterly data covering the period 2000Q1–2022Q4. The empirical results show that the regional effects of government expenditure are characterized by a high level of heterogeneity. The static fiscal multipliers range from 0.17 to 0.55, and the strongest impact of government expenditure on the level of employment occurs in the eastern voivodships of Poland. Thus, the results have important policy implications — the eastern Polish voivodships are among those with below-average economic development, so an expansive fiscal policy may contribute to reducing differences in economic development and enhance regional convergence in Poland. However, the empirical results also indicate that expansionary fiscal policy has the most permanent impact on the labor market in the Mazowieckie Voivodship, which is the richest Polish voivodship. It means that although expansionary fiscal policy in Poland, in the short term, is an effective tool of reducing inequalities in its regional economic development, in the long term, it may lead to an increase in disproportions between the economic development of the richest region and other Polish voivodships.

Non-Market Price Determinants of Fossil Energy Raw Materials

Piotr Kwiatkiewicz — Wed, 26 Jun 2024 00:00:00 +0200

Technological changes related to, among others, the process of computerization of the economic space have an impact on raw material markets and their surroundings. Apart from classic economic factors shaping the prices of goods in connection with their production costs, the impact of factors not previously associated with stock exchange quotations of an exemplary barrel of crude oil or a cubic meter of natural gas is increasingly visible. Among these factors, the following were highlighted: speculation, changes in logistics, adoption of thesaurus values by fossil fuels, emissions trading, and political dependencies. The reasons behind the situation are complex and include the following: changes in the roles of the existing or emerging bodies and institutions, changes in legal regulations, new types of transactions, changes in the nature of stock exchange quotations, maladjustment of the legislative process to current needs, and destabilization of markets.

National and Ethnic Minorities with regard to the 2021 Population and Housing Census in Poland

Paweł Popieliński — Wed, 26 Jun 2024 00:00:00 +0200

The article is dedicated to the issue of ethnic and national minorities in Poland, shedding light on the behind-the-scenes preparations and campaigns of these minorities before and during the 2021 Population and Housing Census in Poland. In this respect, the author aims to explore a broad spectrum of minority issues. Initially, the focus is on detailing the preparation for the census, the minority registration process, and the challenges encountered on the way. To provide some context, the author begins by introducing readers to what censuses are, how many of them have been conducted in Poland, and to what extent they are significant, particularly for minorities in Poland.

Model of a Regional Value-Creation System under the Impact of Structural Funds for Evaluation Purposes

Elżbieta Wojnicka-Sycz — Wed, 26 Jun 2024 00:00:00 +0200

Institutions managing European Funds are obliged by the European Commission to evaluate them. In the article, a micro-macroeconomic model of the regional value-creation system with the impact of structural funds is proposed. Besides the traditional variables of supply and demand in the economy, the model also embraces variables reflecting natural environment protection as well as research and development and innovation. The model may be used as a theoretical framework for evaluation with the usage of quantitative and qualitative methods. The model is based on a systems approach that emphasizes interdependencies and causal loops rather than unidirectional causal relationships. An application of the model for the evaluation of the impact of European Funds on Polish counties is presented, showing the positive impact of the funds of the 2014-2020 programming period on an income proxy and knowledge-based entrepreneurship.

The Russian-Ukrainian War and Its Military Implications

Andrzej Knap — Wed, 26 Jun 2024 00:00:00 +0200

The author presents the issue of the Russian-Ukrainian war and its military implications. For research purposes, the author assumed that the conflict, which has been going on since the spring of 2014, represents a specific variety of warfare called hybrid war both in the academic discourse and in the statements of those engaged in it. The purpose of the author’s research is to find an answer to the following question: what is the specificity of the hybrid war in Ukraine? The author’s thesis is that the specifics of this war are varied, and its determinants should be sought basically in two stages, that is, before and after the outbreak of Russia’s armed aggression against Ukraine in 2022. At the end of the article, the author draws conclusions and makes recommendations for the security (defense) system of the Republic of Poland.

The Reform of Local Self-Government in Ukraine in the Context of the Polish Experience

Valentyn Malynovs’kyy — Wed, 26 Jun 2024 00:00:00 +0200

The article highlights the process of reforming local self-government and territorial organization which took place in Ukraine in 2014–2020 and which led to a radical change in the model of public power at the local level. Accordingly, the purpose of the article is to provide a comprehensive analysis of the local self-government (decentralization) reform in Ukraine, outline the problematic aspects that need to be addressed for its successful completion, and discuss the impact of the Polish decentralization experience on the reform. The timeframe of the study covers 1970-2023. The author analyzes the socio-political preconditions for the reform, its positive results, and the main challenges faced by the decentralization process. The main objective of the reform was to form an original national model of local self-government with successfully functioning territorial communities. In general, this objective has been accomplished since, even in the context of the Russian-Ukrainian war, such communities show their efficiency and cohesion. An important factor in the success of the Ukrainian reform was the use of Poland’s experience in decentralization. The study highlights the positive aspects of the Polish local government reform and the possibilities of their implementation in domestic practice. The study of the Polish experience has also shown that in the process of administrative and territorial reform, it is necessary to take into account specific national characteristics and socio-economic realities. The theoretical and methodological basis of the study was formed by the scientific methods of synthesis and analysis, which rely on comparison and observation. The comparison method, by referring to the Polish local government reform, made it possible to identify common and distinctive aspects of the phenomenon under study and, on this basis, to highlight those that should be adapted to the Ukrainian model of territorial organization. It also enabled us to focus on mistakes that should be avoided. In turn, thanks to the observation method, we were able to study the trends that characterized the evolution of local self-government in Ukraine, to critically assess its transformation at each historical stage, and to identify the political factors that negatively affected this transformation. In the process of writing the article, a critical analysis of the literature on the subject, including the works of Polish and Ukrainian scholars and government officials, as well as the legislative framework of local self-government, played an important role.