Potential Changes in Land Use and Plant Production in Poland in the Context of Implementing the European Green Deal

Walenty Poczta; Piotr Gradziuk; Mariusz Matyka; Arkadiusz Sadowski

doi:10.56583/br.2303

Published : 2023-12-31

Vol. 19 No. 2 (2023)

Potential Changes in Land Use and Plant Production in Poland in the Context of Implementing the European Green Deal

Walenty Poczta

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7592-7412

Piotr Gradziuk

https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0825-6281

Mariusz Matyka

https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6269-1175

Arkadiusz Sadowski

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8236-1007

DOI: https://doi.org/10.56583/br.2303

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to identify the potential changes in agricultural land use in Poland as a consequence of implementing the European Green Deal, including its potential economic effects. The study covered crops of key importance to Polish agriculture, cultivated in a total area of 8.2 million ha, which accounts for more than 60% of land in good agricultural condition. The analyses were based on average values for 2016–2020 and used three scenarios for EGD implementation by 2030 (no EGD; partial implementation of the EGD; full implementation of the EGD). Each analysis took account of changes in the area of land under conventional, organic and precision farming systems. The study found that EGD requirements can be met by implementing the precision farming system, especially for intensive farming schemes like rape and sugar beet. Organic farming should be used either for extensively farmed cereals like oat or for fruits which are sold at higher prices when farmed organically. Another finding is that the full implementation of the EGD could decrease the production volume of key Polish crops by 13%, which can have important social impacts, such as increased prices of food products or a deterioration of food security.

Keywords:

European Green Deal, Polish agriculture, land use, economic impacts, agricultural production efficiency

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Poczta, W., Gradziuk, P., Matyka, M., & Sadowski, A. (2023). Potential Changes in Land Use and Plant Production in Poland in the Context of Implementing the European Green Deal. Regional Barometer. Analyses & Prognoses, 19(2), 7–22. https://doi.org/10.56583/br.2303

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