Regional Heterogeneity of Government Expenditure Multipliers in Poland

Piotr Krajewski; Katarzyna Piłat

doi:10.56583/br.2229

Data publikacji : 2024-06-26

Tom 20 Nr 1 (2024)

Regionalne zróżnicowanie mnożników wydatków rządowych w Polsce

Piotr Krajewski

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5377-9578

Katarzyna Piłat

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9364-8863

DOI: https://doi.org/10.56583/br.2229

Abstrakt

W badaniu poddano analizie regionalne zróżnicowanie wpływu wydatków rządowych na sytuację gospodarczą polskich województw. Celem artykułu jest oszacowanie regionalnych mnożników fiskalnych w Polsce. Badanie empiryczne opiera się na strukturalnym modelu autoregresji wektorowej ze schematem identyfikacji zaproponowanym przez Blancharda i Perottiego. Estymacje zostały przeprowadzone na podstawie danych kwartalnych obejmujących lata 2000–2022. Otrzymane wyniki ukazują, że regionalne efekty wydatków rządowych charakteryzują się wysokim poziomem heterogeniczności. Statyczne mnożniki fiskalne wahają się od 0,17 do 0,55, przy czym najsilniejszy wpływ wydatków rządowych na poziom zatrudnienia występuje we wschodnich województwach. Wyniki badania mają zatem istotne implikacje aplikacyjne — wschodnie województwa Polski należą do regionów o relatywnie niższym poziomie rozwoju gospodarczego, więc ekspansywna polityka fiskalna może przyczynić się do zwiększenia konwergencji regionalnej w Polsce. Wyniki empiryczne wskazują jednak również, że ekspansywna polityka fiskalna ma najtrwalszy wpływ na rynek pracy w województwie mazowieckim, czyli najbogatszym województwie. Oznacza to, że chociaż ekspansywna polityka fiskalna w Polsce w krótkim okresie jest skutecznym narzędziem zmniejszania nierówności regionalnych, to w długim okresie może prowadzić do wzrostu dysproporcji między rozwojem gospodarczym najbogatszego regionu a pozostałymi województwami.

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Zasady cytowania

Krajewski, P., & Piłat, K. (2024). Regionalne zróżnicowanie mnożników wydatków rządowych w Polsce. Barometr Regionalny. Analizy I Prognozy, 20(1), 7–16. https://doi.org/10.56583/br.2229

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Utwór dostępny jest na licencji Creative Commons Uznanie autorstwa – Użycie niekomercyjne – Bez utworów zależnych 4.0 Międzynarodowe.

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