The Economic Sentiment Index as a Tool of Estimation of the Growth Rate of GDP in Regions. An Example of the Lubelskie Voivodship

Mieczysław Kowerski

doi:10.56583/br.1138

Published : 2013-05-09

Vol. 11 No. 1 (2013)

The Economic Sentiment Index as a Tool of Estimation of the Growth Rate of GDP in Regions. An Example of the Lubelskie Voivodship

Mieczysław Kowerski

DOI: https://doi.org/10.56583/br.1138

Abstract

GDP per capita is one of the basic criteria for granting European funding to particular regions. However, in Poland the Central Statistical Office calculates the GDP value in regions with a two-year delay. Therefore, it is important to create tools which, with greater accuracy, would make it possible to estimate the growth rate of GDP in regions much earlier than the publications of the Central Statistical Office. In the article, in order to estimate the growth rate of GDP in regions, the autoregressive model is put forward, in which the voivodship? entrepreneur’s economic sentiment index is used as one independent variable. The sentiment index is calculated on the basis of a survey, and its value is already known a month after the end of the year, which makes it possible to bring forward the estimation of the growth rate of GDP. Using the proposed model, the growth rate of GDP in the Lubelskie Voivodship in the years 2011–2012 was estimated.

Keywords:

estimation of the growth rate of GDP, economic sentiment index, Lubelskie Voivodship

Most read articles by the same author(s)

Mieczysław Kowerski, The Geographical, Economic and Legal Regionalization of the Changes in Dividend Payments in the World , Regional Barometer. Analyses & Prognoses: Vol. 18 No. 1 (2022)
Mieczysław Kowerski, Payout Policy of European Companies , Regional Barometer. Analyses & Prognoses: Vol. 15 No. 3 (2017)
Mieczysław Kowerski, Youth Unemployment in the European Union , Regional Barometer. Analyses & Prognoses: Vol. 11 No. 3 (2013)
Jarosław Bielak, Mieczysław Kowerski, Dynamics of Economic Development Measure. Fiftieth Anniversary of Publication of the Article by Prof. Zdzisław Hellwig , Regional Barometer. Analyses & Prognoses: Vol. 16 No. 4 (2018)
Mieczysław Kowerski, Jarosław Bielak, Self-Selection Models in Determination of Target Dividend Payout Ratio of Real Estate Domestic Companies Quoted on the Warsaw Stock Exchange , Regional Barometer. Analyses & Prognoses: Vol. 16 No. 1 (2018)
Jarosław Bielak, Andrzej Burda, Mieczysław Kowerski, Krzysztof Pancerz, Modelling and Forecasting Cash Withdrawals in the Bank , Regional Barometer. Analyses & Prognoses: Vol. 13 No. 4 (2015)
Mieczysław Kowerski, Mirosław Wypych, Ownership Structure and Dividend Strategy of Public Companies. Evidence from Poland , Regional Barometer. Analyses & Prognoses: Vol. 14 No. 4 (2016)
Mieczysław Kowerski, Review of Elżbieta Szulc and Dagna Wleklińska The Spatial-Temporal Analysis of the Connections of the Stock Markets Considering the Economic vs. Geographical Distance , Regional Barometer. Analyses & Prognoses: Vol. 18 No. 1 (2022)
Mieczysław Kowerski, Jarosław Bielak, Convergence of the Standard of Living in Polish NUTS 2 Regions , Regional Barometer. Analyses & Prognoses: Vol. 17 No. 1 (2019)
Mieczysław Kowerski, Review of Andrzej Miszczuk. ed. Wyzwania rozwojowe pogranicza polsko-ukraińskiego , Regional Barometer. Analyses & Prognoses: Vol. 15 No. 1 (2017)

1 2 3 4 5 6 > >>

Details

References

Statistics

Authors

Download files

PDF

Citation rules

Kowerski, M. (2013). The Economic Sentiment Index as a Tool of Estimation of the Growth Rate of GDP in Regions. An Example of the Lubelskie Voivodship. Regional Barometer. Analyses & Prognoses, 11(1), 57–63. https://doi.org/10.56583/br.1138

Altmetric indicators

Cited by / Share

Licence

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.

References

Bielak, J., D. Długosz, and A. Salej. 2011. “Zmiany nastrojów gospodarczych w województwie lubelskim w IV kwartale 2010 roku.” Lubelski Barometr Gospodarczy. Raporty no. 7:27–52.

Gruszczyński, M., T. Kuszewski, and M. Podgórska. 2009. Ekonometria i badania operacyjne. Podręcznik dla studiów licencjackich. Warszawa: Wydawnictwo Naukowe PWN.

“The Joint Harmonised EU Programme of Business and Consumer Surveys. User Guide.” 2007. Brussels: European Commission. Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs.

http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/db_indicators/surveys/documents/userguide_en.pdf (accessed 2013.02.20).

Kowerski, M. 2009. “Metodyka badania nastrojów gospodarczych w województwie lubelskim na tle badań Komisji Europejskiej.” Barometr Regionalny. Analizy i prognozy no. 3 (17): 15–28. DOI: https://doi.org/10.35480/BRAiP-2019.17.1-721

Kowerski, M. 2011. “10 lat badań nastrojów gospodarczych przedsiębiorców i konsumentów województwa lubelskiego.” Barometr Regionalny. Analizy i prognozy no. 2 (24): 15–34.

Kowerski, M. 2012a. “Barometr nastrojów gospodarczych jako narzędzie diagnozowania i prognozowania rozwoju regionu transgranicznego.” In Kadry dla gospodarki transgranicznej, edited by M. Kowerski and I. Pieczykolan, 51–72. Zamość: Wyższa Szkoła Zarządzania i Administracji w Zamościu.

Kowerski, M. 2012b. “Jedenaście lat badań nastrojów gospodarczych w województwie lubelskim.” Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH (forthcoming).

Kufel, T. 2011. Ekonometria. Rozwiązywanie problemów z wykorzystaniem programu GRETL. Wyd. 3. zm. ed. Warszawa: Wydawnictwo Naukowe PWN.

Maddala, G.S. 2006. Ekonometria. Translated by M. Gruszczyński, E. Tomczyk and B. Witkowski. Warszawa: Wydawnictwo Naukowe PWN.

Stiglitz, J.E., A. Sen, and J.-P. Fitoussi. 2010. Mismeasuring Our Lives. Why GDP Doesn’t Add Up. New York: New Press.