The Economic Sentiment Index as a Tool of Estimation of the Growth Rate of GDP in Regions. An Example of the Lubelskie Voivodship

Mieczysław Kowerski

doi:10.56583/br.1138

Published : 2013-05-09

Vol. 11 No. 1 (2013)

The Economic Sentiment Index as a Tool of Estimation of the Growth Rate of GDP in Regions. An Example of the Lubelskie Voivodship

Mieczysław Kowerski

DOI: https://doi.org/10.56583/br.1138

Abstract

GDP per capita is one of the basic criteria for granting European funding to particular regions. However, in Poland the Central Statistical Office calculates the GDP value in regions with a two-year delay. Therefore, it is important to create tools which, with greater accuracy, would make it possible to estimate the growth rate of GDP in regions much earlier than the publications of the Central Statistical Office. In the article, in order to estimate the growth rate of GDP in regions, the autoregressive model is put forward, in which the voivodship? entrepreneur’s economic sentiment index is used as one independent variable. The sentiment index is calculated on the basis of a survey, and its value is already known a month after the end of the year, which makes it possible to bring forward the estimation of the growth rate of GDP. Using the proposed model, the growth rate of GDP in the Lubelskie Voivodship in the years 2011–2012 was estimated.

Keywords:

estimation of the growth rate of GDP, economic sentiment index, Lubelskie Voivodship

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Kowerski, M. (2013). The Economic Sentiment Index as a Tool of Estimation of the Growth Rate of GDP in Regions. An Example of the Lubelskie Voivodship. Regional Barometer. Analyses & Prognoses, 11(1), 57–63. https://doi.org/10.56583/br.1138

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