Wpływ nastrojów gospodarczych przedsiębiorców i konsumentów na decyzje dywidendowe spółek kapitałowych

Mieczysław Kowerski

doi:10.56583/br.1370

Published : 2010-07-22

No. 2 (20) (2010)

The Impact of Economic Sentiments Among Entrepreneurs and Consumers on the Dividend Decisions by Limited Liability Companies

Mieczysław Kowerski

DOI: https://doi.org/10.56583/br.1370

Abstract

In previous research on the determinants of dividend decisions by limited liability companies, a much higher signification was given to the micro-economic factors describing the economic and financial situation of companies, then to the macroeconomic ones. In addition, there is a lack of analyses of the impact of economic sentiments on the dividend policy by companies. Moreover, the companies do not operate in 'a vacuum'. The economic situation in a certain country, and even the world economic situation and its perception by entrepreneurs, has a significant impact on their activities and decisions. To verify the hypothesis about the impact of economic sentiments on the dividend decisions by the companies listed during the years 1996–2009 on the Warsaw Stock Exchange, the logistic models were applied. The dependent variable had the value of the logit of the fraction of firms paying dividends in the total number of firms quoted at the end of a current year. The explanatory variables included, the rate of growth of the GDP in a year t – 1 and an economic sentiment in the current year (measured by using computed by the European Commission at monthly intervals – Economic Sentiment Index). The estimated models allowed to reach a conclusion that, apart from the economic and financial situation in the year t – 1, the dividend decisions made in the year t are also affected by the economic sentiments appearing in the Polish economy at the end of May in year t. It is all the more understandable because, according to the Polish Code of Commercial Companies, a company should decide on the distribution of profit within 6 months after the end of an economic year. Therefore, when making decisions, the boards of companies and shareholders should take into consideration not only the economic situation in the previous year, but also their own assessment of the current economic sentiment. This may be an additional explanation for the restrictions in the payment of dividends during the last recession.

Keywords:

Warsaw Stock Exchange, dividend policy, Economic Sentiment Index, share of companies paying dividends in all quoted companies, linear logit model, generalized least squares method

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Kowerski, M. (2010). The Impact of Economic Sentiments Among Entrepreneurs and Consumers on the Dividend Decisions by Limited Liability Companies. Regional Barometer. Analyses & Prognoses, (2 (20), 19–34. https://doi.org/10.56583/br.1370

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