Dynamika cykli koniunkturalnych, cykle wzrostowe i nowa metoda ich ekstrakcji

Robert Pater

doi:10.56583/br.1462

Published : 2008-10-10

No. 4 (14) (2008)

Growth Cycles and the Dynamics of Business Cycles

Robert Pater

DOI: https://doi.org/10.56583/br.1462

Abstract

It is commonly assumed that business cycles last about 6 to 32 quarters. Therefore they are quite irregular and the amplitude of the recurring significantly vary. Moreover existing methods of business cycles extraction give various results. Every method slightly differently defines ‘cycle’. The purpose of this article is to analyze the dynamics of business cycles in chosen macroeconomic variables. First part of the article is a comparison of three methods of cycle extraction: step cycles, deviation cycles and growth rate cycles. Then I analyze the dynamics of business cycles phases. Particular attention is paid to the distinction of economic cycles on business cycles and growth cycles. Growth cycles extend from 6 do 16 quarters. They are hardly observable in raw data, especially in macroeconomic aggregates. However they can easily be seen in business condition test results. After applying appropriate filtering method we can say that growth cycles are also recorded by many other variables, especially macroeconomic aggregates such as GDP or the rate of unemployment. In the article I indicate that this kind of cycles is significant for the analysis of relation between leading indexes and coincident indicators.

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Pater, R. (2008). Growth Cycles and the Dynamics of Business Cycles. Regional Barometer. Analyses & Prognoses, (4 (14), 63–78. https://doi.org/10.56583/br.1462

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