Prognozowanie rynku pracy woj. lubelskiego z wykorzystaniem modeli ARIMA i ARIMAX

Jarosław Bielak

doi:10.56583/br.1379

Published : 2010-05-13

No. 1 (19) (2010)

Forecasting of Lubelskie Voivodship Labor Market by Applying ARIMA and ARIMAX Models

Jarosław Bielak

DOI: https://doi.org/10.56583/br.1379

Abstract

In the article practical application of models ARIMA and ARIMAX to forecast Lubelskie Voivodship labor market – number of unemployed persons and average paid employment in enterprise sector – is presented. Additional variable in the ARIMAX models is economic sentiment index (barometer). The differences between forecast obtained by ARIMA models and forecasts obtained by ARIMAX models are shown. Quarterly and monthly time series are taken into consideration. Additionally method of conversion economic sentiment index from quarterly to monthly frequency is discussed. In the last part of paper the presented forecasting method is reviewed.

Keywords:

forecasting, labor market, economic sentiment index, ARIMA and ARIMAX models, Lublin

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Bielak, J. (2010). Forecasting of Lubelskie Voivodship Labor Market by Applying ARIMA and ARIMAX Models. Regional Barometer. Analyses & Prognoses, (1 (19), 27–44. https://doi.org/10.56583/br.1379

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