Diagnoza oraz prognoza zatrudnienia i bezrobocia w województwie podkarpackim do 2013 r.

Robert Pater

doi:10.56583/br.1423

Published : 2009-04-06

No. 1 (15) (2009)

Diagnosis and Prognosis of Employment and Unemployment in the Podkarpackie Voivodship to 2013

Robert Pater

DOI: https://doi.org/10.56583/br.1423

Abstract

During years 2003-2007 we observed the growth phase of the business cycle in Poland and the improvement of the labour market. This improvement was visible due to the growth of employment and decreasing of the unemployment rate, both in the Podkarpackie Voivodship and the rest of Poland. Despite hard beginnings, the dynamics of employment have been continually rising. During this period the Polish labour market went through considerable changes. In 2008, for the first time since 2003, signals of worsening of the economic situation in Poland emerged. The article contains a synthesis of the latest situation of the regional labour market in the Podkarpackie Voivodship and also an attempt to forecast this situation up to 2013. The main aim of the article is to create a reliable long-term prognosis, emphasizing the period during which a cyclical turning point will occur. Forecasting the economic situation during considerable changes is a difficult task, however. That is why a diagnosis of the situation is also required, especially an analysis of changing the dynamics of employment and unemployment. A few indicators which are able to show the dynamics of the labour market with lead are also analyzed. What is more, a forecast of GDP was made with the use of additive “cyclical factors” created on the same basis as seasonal factors. This forecast was used in the model as one of the predictors. The forecasting model was supplemented by an autoregressive part and harmonic variables of periodicity similar to the frequency of business cycles observed in the labour market.

Keywords:

labour demand, business cycle, forecasting

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Pater, R. (2009). Diagnosis and Prognosis of Employment and Unemployment in the Podkarpackie Voivodship to 2013. Regional Barometer. Analyses & Prognoses, (1 (15), 63–76. https://doi.org/10.56583/br.1423

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